Why cult will not be releasing e-commerce marketing predictions for 2022
Flash back to our 2021 post ☝️
So here’s the thing, I love, LOVE, keeping my finger on the pulse of e-commerce and digital marketing news. I eat it for breakfast, which is to say that I peruse various Facebook groups and news articles while sipping my coffee in the morning.
But it doesn’t take an e-com marketing nerd like myself to know that at the start of every year, like clockwork, business owners, bloggers and media outlets will proclaim the “10 E-Commerce Mega Trends to Look Out For”.
So this year, when perusing aforementioned headlines and re-watching our 2021 video, I had a mini lightbulb moment. I realized I don’t want to drink the trend alert kool-aid. And if you truly want to grow your business into something that has long term success and keeps you fufilled, you shouldn’t either.
Here’s why.
- Every digital marketers 2021 involved debate, speculation, panic and grit around the dreaded iOS update – that little “Ask App Not To Track” message that pops up on your iPhone sent an entire industry into code red.
The Financial Times explained the change well: “In May, Apple communicated its privacy changes to the wider public, launching an advert that featured a harassed man whose daily activities were closely monitored by an ever-growing group of strangers. When his iPhone prompted him to ‘Ask App Not to Track,’ he clicked it and they vanished. Apple’s message to potential customers was clear — if you choose an iPhone, you are choosing privacy.”
But, while that may have been the message, the reality is much more complicated.
Ask anyone, and they’ll say they want their privacy. But the definition of what is private will be inconsistent across individuals, cultures, and yes, even Fortune 500 companies.
Did we know businesses like Meta (Calling Zuck’s empire “Facebook” is sooo 2021) were tracking us before? Yes we did.
Did we care? Maybe.
Did we do anything about it? Well, um, not really.
But now Apple puts the option right in front of you. A line-in-the-sand screen pop-up differentiating Apple from, let’s say, Google.
Apple’s privacy argument has been that Google sells ads, so it will leverage your data, whereas Apple sells hardware and software and doesn’t need to leverage user data.
But Apple can’t put themselves in a situation where they are basically gutting their top-performing apps from a user-consumption perspective. That would be a death sentence for iOS.
Which is why they are still mining data for apps, just anonymizing and aggregating it first. Apple’s definition of privacy may be different than yours. Meanwhile, Meta, for example, have already played their next move and, like Apple, have ventured into hardware. [How many people do you know got an Oculus for Christmas 2021?]
You: Ok, ok, so what does this have to do with avoiding trend forecasting for 2022?
Me: I’m so glad you asked!
Trend forecasting focuses largely on what is unfolding now. What’s in development, being released, announced, purchased and shared. It puts shareholders at ease; “10 E-Commerce Mega Trends to Look Out For” signifies “the future is bright” for the industry.
But what if we looked beyond emerging trends to future implications? Implications go beyond what is unfolding now. They probe the possible risks and opportunities that stem from trends.
Our Industrial Age thinking has assumed unfettered growth and linear progression, but complexity plays by a different set of rules where good ideas can create bad outcomes, and vice versa.
It’s not enough in this day and age to understand trends; we must also map out the near and far ramifications of our decisions and ideas.
It’s all well and good to cheer “Down with Algorithms! Up with Privacy!”. But what are the long term implications on freedom of information, small business, technology and social interactions? Who comes out on top?
When social media was in its infancy, were we having conversations about data protection and fake news? No. We considered how it impacted our immediate needs and signed up.
So when considering whether your business should invest its focus in chatbots, crypto or social commerce, for example, maybe think about how those trends will manifest in the future.
- If trend forecasting is all about futures thinking, what can history teach us? Let’s look at trends in collective consciousness. Think back to two summers ago, the summer of 2020, when a series of highly-publicized killings of Black Americans sparked outrage. People put up black squares on their Instagram feeds. Corporates got involved. Nike told us “Just Don’t Do It”, as in don’t be racist. Thanks Nike.
But that movement gave way to new, more reactionary ones. Ones where schools began banning books with Black protagonists claiming they allude to critical race theory which, according to those in favour of said movement, is harming our children and insurgents stormed the US capitol waving confederate flags.
But as journalist Emmanuel Berry points out this is what we do: “Reconstruction, then Jim Crow, the Civil Rights movement, to the war on drugs, Obama to Trump.” Trends in social awakening repeat themselves.
You: Oh fuck, so we are all just caught in a hopeless loop?
Me: Maybe. But that’s not the point. Yes trends can be cyclical, but it runs deeper than bucket hats coming back into fashion.
Trends exist between political, environmental, economic, technological and social issues that can never be accurately captured in a one dimensional Mega Trend list. Trends are created by and limited by these very systems.
Rather than being shackled by events today, we need to go beyond current platforms, resources and ideology to make way for real change and innovation.
Let’s take sustainability – the buzzword no doubt popping up on every “10 E-Commerce Mega Trends to Look Out For” list.
According to the lore of conscious consumerism, every purchase you make is a “moral act”—an opportunity to “vote with your dollar” for the world you want to see.
We believe that if we give consumers transparency and information, they’ll make the right choice.
The reality is that making a series of small, ethical purchasing decisions while ignoring the structural systems at play won’t change the world as quickly as we want.
Consumption is the backbone of the economy—which means individual conscious consumerism is bound to fail.
This is the moment where companies (and individuals) reveal whether their reactions to a movement were based on a trend, or if they are actually committing to creating lasting change, even without that same level of public scrutiny.
If you sell sustainable products, maybe donate money to organizations that are fighting to keep agricultural runoff out of our rivers.
If you posted a black square to show your solidarity with Black Lives Matter, maybe evaluate how inclusive and equitable your business practices are.
When it comes to trends in movements, consider how you can go beyond using it in your marketing and actually impact real systemic change.
- The reality is that every organization has at least one goal for their future. Trends are really just aspirations promising to get to that goal quicker. They claim to save us time, earn us money, or improve our current situation. When it comes to trends, digital marketers will often hedge their bets. They’ll remind their clients that there are 7 different touch points, and prophesize the potential pot of gold at the other end. “It’s about making real, meaningful connections” they’ll say, while churning out content for content’s sake.
The truth is there is a trend for EVERYTHING: work-life balance, scalable business models, sustainable weight loss, etc., etc. Some newbies or skeptics might wait it out. Maybe they’ll see what wins their competitors are having before jumping on the bandwagon. Unfortunately, simply adopting a trend without examining the nuances behind its success won’t yield the same results.
Now, I’ll admit, in marketing, as in comedy, timing is everything. There is something to be said for joining the ranks of [insert trend here] and getting a bigger slice of the pie before the rest of the market floods in. But while trend following may be the simplest and most direct way to attract attention and raise short-term revenue, going in head first or following someone else’s lead usually causes a company to stray from its own brand identity and ultimately to create products and services that are inconsistent with its values and culture.
If your business is genuinely at a transformational point, where adopting new tech or innovation seems like an obvious progression, then test it out first. Identify ways to roll out a change on a small scale; take benchmarks at the beginning and determine a method to test and measure improvements that is time bound.
So if not trends, then what can digital marketing and ecommerce businesses look forward to in 2022?
I value critical thinking over quick wins and bold promises. Take stock in what you achieved to this point and how you can strategically improve upon what you are already doing. Connect with people outside your user personas in ways that lead to more sustainable impact. Try to determine where you want society to head and explore how your business can add value.
That’s what really excites me
(P.S. Hands up if you hate the sound of your voice 👋 Yeesh, this video! 😬)